Correlation and Causation

Let me preface this anecdote with a brief description of the difference between correlation and causation. I'm sure most of you know that just because two events are correlated that it does not mean that one caused the other. For example, even if event A happens around the same time as B, A might not cause B. A third event, C, could have caused both A and B. If this is too abstract, just ponder this little fact: the US has never lost a war in which donkeys were used. Now should we trade in all of our M1 Abrams for Eeyore in a flak jacket? Remember this, or nothing that follows will seem wondrous and amazing--or make any sense. Anyway, on to the story...

Although it may seem surprising, I was very serious as a child. Very serious, very matter-of-fact; a precocious and therefore obnoxious know-it-all. Moreso than I am now, even. I also had a tendency to not get the joke; or at least I would get the joke but them proceed to tell the questionable comedian where he or she was mistaken. I was a barrel of laughs back then. Case in point, the phrase "it's always in the last place you look." I took this advice solemnly to heart as a great piece of wisdom about how hard it is to find things that you've lost. I never made the logical leap that, by definition, any missing item is in the last place you look because once you find it, you stop looking. I had assumed just correlation, when causation had reared its ugly head. Embarrassingly, since this phrase entered my head as an idiomatic expression long before I could question my analysis, I did not make this connection until very late in life--high school, in fact. One of my fellow thespians made some comment about how much that phrase annoyed her. I couldn't, for the life of me, figure out why that particular colloquialism would be annoying, when it hit me like a ton of bricks. The world became a little bit bigger for me that day, and the stars just a little bit brighter.

I have had many such "blonde" moments over the past quarter century. Most of them are just as harmless and humerous as this one (or even funnier, if you didn't care for it), but one in particular stands out as having a powerful impact on what is important to me and one of my self-described defining characteristics.

I was once an altarboy at Mountain View Lutheran Church, for those who know it. Save your jokes; I was Lutheran and our clergy were allowed to marry, sparing us from the iniquities of some other unnamed denominations. One Sunday morning, as I was in the narthex in my robe, lighter/snuffer in hand, waiting for my opportunity to shine, an elderly man who was volunteering as an usher struck up a conversation with me. The conversation meandered like good banter does, and shortly before I was to go on, he said to me, "the day you don't learn anything is the day you die." Which brings us back to correlation and causation. There are two events in this statement: learning something (A) and being alive (B, or more specifically, not B, but that's not the question). A is clearly correlated to B. You can not be alive and not learn something, even if it is something mundane and trivial like "it was cloudy today." However, in my earnestness, I took this as more of a commandment: learn or you WILL die. I don't know if this short and inauspicious episode had a direct effect on how important it is to me to always be learning and trying something new, or if it just struck a mental chord with me (good ol' correlation and causation, yet again), but considering this is coming from somebody who can only stand the monotony of exercise by doing math problems in his head, it does at least seem a pretty accurate description.

(Let's see, a 150 lbs. person burns 100 calories per mile so that works out to...hmm...Let's see what that is in calories per step...that means I'm burning calories with X efficiency...cool, one mile down. Oh, and faster than usual...I wonder what my improvement per week is...)

Oops, I mean, the moral of the story is: learn something, or I'll kill you. NOW.

Did you vote today?

Why not?

Eminem

As some may know, I've been an Eminem fan for a while now. Misogyny and homophobia aside, he has written and produced some phenominal music--especially on The Eminem Show. He has a new video out, which is just amazing, in my opinion. He has positioned himself remarkably well over the past several years to put himself in a place to influence a lot of people, and he does a great job of using that in this video. I have a lot of respect for this man, and what he does. View. Listen. Discuss.

If interested here is another video I am fond of.

Of course, since this is Eminem, you may not want to play this at the ol' family reunion, or at Bible School. :)

I Got a New Car

I bought a new car this weekend -- a 2004 White Honda S2000 with tan interior. I've already managed to put a couple hundred miles on it in two days.

Without further adieu, here are pictures:
pictures have been removed - Feb. '05

Notice the big grin on my face. :)

How many people know somebody who turned 24 today?

Answer: all of you :)

And to make this post interesting, here's what happened on my birthday, 45 years ago:

President Dwight D. Eisenhower signs an executive order transferring the brilliant rocket designer Wernher von Braun and his team from the U.S. Army to the newly created National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Von Braun, the mastermind of the U.S. space program, had developed the lethal V-2 rocket for Nazi Germany during World War II.

I rocket.

So Long And Thanks For All the Episodes

BBC Radio is reviving a series most of us are too young to have experienced first-hand. They have created 6 new episodes of Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy that will air over the coming weeks. Through the miracle of technology, Douglas Adams will be playing the role of Agrajag, despite the notable handicap of being dead.

Let's all raise a Djinan Tawnic to this sci-fi masterpiece and its talented creator. I will be glued to my (internet) radio after Thursday, when it becomes available for general download. The times listed on the web page are GMT+1, hence I can't listen live. I will be working, but such is life. If I can find a way to save the audio streams, I will do so.

Back Once Again with the Physical Master

Found out Friday that I passed my qualifier, which means, officially, I have completed all the requirements for my Masters degree. Finally have that milestone under my belt :).

I'm a Creep

I ran across a very well done flash animation set to Radiohead's Creep. I highly recommend viewing.

Peace Out.

EDIT:
Okay, it appears the flash has been taken down (temporarily?) due to possible copyright reasons or what-have-you. Here is the launch page for the site. Check back here as the will possesses you. If it gets put back up, then this will be where it happens first.

Thank you, Brian, for the updated mirror.

I took Jess's quiz as well.

Here is the quiz I got from Jess's Blog 53/100 ain't too shabby...

IMDB's Top 100 Best Movies of All Time generate this HTML for your own page at ObeytheFist.com
Rank Movie Didn't See It/ Started It/ Finished It/ Hated It! 1 Godfather, The (1972) Finished It 2 Shawshank Redemption, The (1994) Finished It 3 Godfather: Part II, The (1974) Finished It 4 Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, The (2003) Finished It 5 Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The (2002) Finished It 6 Casablanca (1942) 7 Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, The (2001) Finished It 8 Schindler's List (1993) Finished It 9 Shichinin no samurai (1954) 10 Star Wars (1977) Finished It 11 Citizen Kane (1941) Finished It 12 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975) Finished It 13 Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964) Finished It 14 Rear Window (1954) 15 Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (1980) Finished It 16 Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) Finished It 17 Memento (2000) Finished It 18 Usual Suspects, The (1995) Finished It 19 Pulp Fiction (1994) Finished It 20 North by Northwest (1959) 21 12 Angry Men (1957) Finished It 22 Fabuleux destin d'Amélie Poulain, Le (2001) Finished It 23 Psycho (1960) Finished It 24 Lawrence of Arabia (1962) Finished It 25 Buono, il brutto, il cattivo, Il (1966) 26 Silence of the Lambs, The (1991) 27 It's a Wonderful Life (1946) Finished It 28 Goodfellas (1990) Finished It 29 American Beauty (1999) Finished It 30 Vertigo (1958) 31 Sunset Blvd. (1950) 32 Matrix, The (1999) Finished It 33 Apocalypse Now (1979) 34 Pianist, The (2002) Finished It 35 To Kill a Mockingbird (1962) Finished It 36 C'era una volta il West (1968) 37 Some Like It Hot (1959) Finished It 38 Third Man, The (1949) 39 Taxi Driver (1976) Finished It 40 Paths of Glory (1957) 41 Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (2001) 42 Fight Club (1999) Finished It 43 Boot, Das (1981) 44 Double Indemnity (1944) 45 L.A. Confidential (1997) Finished It 46 Chinatown (1974) Finished It 47 Singin' in the Rain (1952) Finished It 48 Maltese Falcon, The (1941) Finished It 49 M (1931) 50 Requiem for a Dream (2000) Finished It 51 Bridge on the River Kwai, The (1957) 52 All About Eve (1950) 53 Se7en (1995) Finished It 54 Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975) Finished It 55 Saving Private Ryan (1998) Finished It 56 Cidade de Deus (2002) 57 Raging Bull (1980) 58 Rashômon (1950) 59 Wizard of Oz, The (1939) Finished It 60 Sting, The (1973) 61 Alien (1979) Finished It 62 American History X (1998) Finished It 63 Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939) 64 Léon (1994) Finished It 65 Vita è bella, La (1997) 66 Touch of Evil (1958) 67 Manchurian Candidate, The (1962) 68 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Finished It 69 Treasure of the Sierra Madre, The (1948) 70 Great Escape, The (1963) Finished It 71 Wo hu cang long (2000) 72 Reservoir Dogs (1992) Finished It 73 Clockwork Orange, A (1971) Finished It 74 Amadeus (1984) 75 Modern Times (1936) 76 Ran (1985) 77 Annie Hall (1977) 78 Jaws (1975) 79 On the Waterfront (1954) 80 Braveheart (1995) 81 High Noon (1952) 82 Apartment, The (1960) 83 Fargo (1996) Finished It 84 Sixth Sense, The (1999) Finished It 85 Aliens (1986) Finished It 86 Shining, The (1980) Finished It 87 Strangers on a Train (1951) 88 Blade Runner (1982) 89 Metropolis (1927) 90 Duck Soup (1933) 91 Finding Nemo (2003) Finished It 92 Donnie Darko (2001) 93 General, The (1927) 94 City Lights (1931) 95 Princess Bride, The (1987) Finished It 96 Toy Story 2 (1999) Finished It 97 Kill Bill: Vol. 1 (2003) Finished It 98 Great Dictator, The (1940) 99 Sjunde inseglet, Det (1957) 100 Lola rennt (1998) Finished It
Which movies have you seen?

I have returned

I have returned from Hawaii, and in the same vein, I have returned to blogging. I have abandoned it for far too long and it's time to write more again. With school now safely out of the way I will have fewer distractions pulling me from my more creative pursuits. I know actions speak louder than words, but in this case the actions are words.

JoAnn ran her first marathon this past Sunday in Kona, Hawaii, and she finished in 5 hours, 24 minutes. Not too shabby for a first shot, eh?

Jo and I also got engaged while in the tropics. We have not set a date. We will likely begin the planning process next year. I have my quals this fall, and we will be house hunting later this year and we don't want to have to deal with wedding planning on top of that. I will keep all of you apprised of important updates, of course.

For pictures and whatnot, check out JoAnn's website and click on "Pictures." It has a link to some photo galleries. Hawaii pics aren't up yet, but will be tonight or tomorrow night.

Blog Resuscitation

There are only three things needed to accomplish anything in life: resources, motivation, and time. I have been short on all three, hence the neglect of my blog. I am slowly nursing it back to health, and hope to have a couple of short stories posted in the near future.

Thank you for your concern.

Insanity from Space

I came across some interesting imagery on my daily treck through the interweb today.

We don't need no water let the motha-***** burn...
Sun Go Boom
Sun Going Boom

Thank you Earth Observatory for providing the fodor for this update.

New discussion board

Hey all. I figured since we have a tendency to get into discussions quite a bit, a message board might be a better forum than the "Shout Out" box after each post.

The board is at: http://daguys.proboards24.com/

Feel free to link to this after any of your posts. I will add it to my template so the link is automatically available.

You don't have to register to view or post, but it would be helpful to know who you are :)

See you there :)

Birthday

I am 23 today. Bow down before me, or at least leave me a nice message :)

Double-plus Goodread

I just finished reading 1984 today. Doubleplusgood book. Orwell is (was) a very smart man. I like how he managed to predict the cold war stalemate, and specifically nuclear arms proliferation--all before the book was published in 1949.

One of the major sources of conflict in the book is the dichotomy between two differing views of human nature. On one hand, you have "The Blank Slate." Put simply, this is the philosophy that contends that all humans are infinitely malleable; that who they are is entirely a product of their environment. This view is the one held by religious groups (stemming from a belief in the soul) and by the far left--generally borderline socialist and beyond, including many college students (stemming from the belief that culture is its own self contained entity). Due to the extremist movements of the 60s and 70s, this view is the one that is engrained in our culture and has had a profound effect on our public policy.

On the other hand, you have the sociobiologists. They purport that much of what makes up human nature is defined, at least in part, by genes. The characteristics that are at least partially heritable include: intelligence, propensity for violence, liberalism/conservatism, and several others. This view is held by many in the psychological and cognitive science fields, at least by those who don't fall under the liberal extremist category. It is also, interestingly, a view held somewhat instinctively by much of the population, even though they pay lip-service to the Blank Slate. Idiomatic expressions such as "He's a bad egg" and "Winners are born, not made" attest to this belief. (To get a detailed description of these two views and a defense of cognitive science, check out The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature by Steven Pinker.)

Now, in 1984, these two are set against each other. The Party believes that "human nature is infinitely malleable" and use this to control not only the actions but the thoughts of its citizens. The Party believes that "whoever controls the present controls the past; and whoever controls the past controls the future." Truth exists only in the mind, so if they control the mind, they control everything and will then be endowed with absolute power. The lead character, Winston, believes there is such a thing as absolute truth and that, some day, the proles--the unwashed masses--will rise up against their oppressors and once again be free. The Party is not completely naive, and realizes that maintaining absolute power over an entire nation of hundreds of millions of people will not occur through a simple "socialization." Torture, fear, and intimidation are necessary tools to keep the lower castes from revolting.

Now here is the question I pose to you:

First, ask yourself where you stand on the issue of the Blank Slate vs. sociobiology. Now, envision a 1984-like society and try to imagine the outcome. If the Blank Slate is correct, the population, in theory, should be able to be socialized into accepting complete domination by an all-encompassing power--they would never revolt. However, if sociobiology is correct, and all human beings inherently want to have "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," then given enough time, all oppressed peoples will eventually overthrow their oppressors. Based on your own experiences and perception of human nature, where do you fall on these issues? What conflicts (if any) arise from these beliefs? How do you justify them?

Baking and Poetry

Red, Ripe and Round
Quite Sweet and Tasty
Delicious inside
A cinnamon Pastry

Put in the Oven
Bake at 350
Wait 15 minutes
Don't go too swiftly

When golden brown
Remove from the oven
And that's how you make
My rhymed Apple Muffins.

A Brief Poem

To verb a noun
Is a beautiful sound,
But to noun a verb
Is simply superb.

One of the most interesting things to watch...

Right now I'm watching some program about cartoons on VH1. Don't even get me started on the stupidity of having show about cartoons on a MUSIC station. Stupid TV execs. Anyhoo, on this program, they had a brief blurb on the Simpsons--the original prime-time cartoon that wasn't just for kids anymore. Just like Frosted Flakes. Mmm...Frosted Flakes... Ahem. During this blurb, they interviewed Hank Azaria, who is quite possibly one of the most amazing voice actors ever. In this interview he recapped almost every single one of his major characters on the show. He seamlessly transitioned between Moe, Apu, Chief Wiggum, Snake, Comic-Book Guy, and many more. Now it is difficult to describe the emotions one experiences while watching this impressive display of vocal acrobatics, but it is quite powerful. Perhaps this is more an indication of my character than of any over-arching quality of human nature, but one comes to develop a deep and real relationship with these characters. Homer, Bart, Maggie, Lisa, Marge, these are all real people within the confines of my mind. They can inspire, disappoint, confuse, entertain, provide all of the qualities of a real human relationship. I often share anecdotes from the Simpsons as if I experienced them first hand. Now, when you view the voice actor recreating these characters in front your very eyes, your mind gets caught in a very delicate situation: since you see all of these characters coming out of one mouth, either the characters are not real, or the voice actor is host to the whole lot of them. Now, we have established that the ink & paper are as real as the flesh & blood. Therefore, they share an equal portion of the knowledge base with which we measure other members of the human race. Consequently, the first choice is not an option. It has too much potential to upset your entire personal belief structure about human nature. This is the subtle step that moves the characters out of the silver screen and into the 3-D world. To sum up the emotional translation, it is akin to the experience giving birth. A new life is brought into the world and, as with all newborns, leaves its indelible mark on the world.

Keep in mind, that during the Renaissance, the great artists of the day created art for a living. They were every bit as commercial as today's creators of film, TV, music, and other forms of art. Only time will tell which of these ventures will be taught to the eager young minds of our great-great-grandchildren. I hope to god that they never hear of Jerry Bruckheimer.

On an interesting side note, when I ran spell check on this post, the suggested spelling for "Bruckheimer" was "brokenhearted." This is a very smart blog.

Elections are only about 16 months away. Vote Dean

I'm done with school on Thursday. Forever. And I don't really care. I feel like I should care, but I don't. It'll be nice to not have homework anymore, but I'll also be working more than twice the hours I am now, so it kind of balances out. Just like getting my B.S., working on my M.S. has been very anticlimactic. You put in a ton of time and effort, and all you have to show for it in the end is a piece of paper.

To be fair, this piece of paper provides a much larger income than most other pieces of paper, but in the end it is just another piece of paper. It doesn't mean I am any smarter. It doesn't mean I am better qualified. It might mean I am slightly more attractive, but that could just be my imagination.

Why did I spend these past 18 years working towards this? Hopefully not just so I can make enough money to afford to put my kids through it too. (It's okay to read that last sentence again. I know it's poorly worded.) I am reminded all too often, by my own experience and what I have witnessed, that a degree gives very minimal indication of one's education and abilities and provides even less preparation for the future. The vast majority of what I do at work, I learned at work or on my own time. School provided me some opportunity to hone these skills, but in aggregate the five years of college didn't amount to much. Although, I could tell you in FAR too much detail exactly what happens to an atom if you ram a photon into it. Fascinating, huh?

I guess it comes down to this. What I want out of life is to learn. And I want somebody to pay me for it (or at least I want to have enough money where I don't need to be paid). And I don't want to have people checking on my progress along the way with tests, homework, or status reports. Some of my favorite moments in recent history have been at Starbucks with a coffee in one hand and a book on linguistics in the other (check out "The Language Instinct" by Steven Pinker. v.g.). I've learned a lot about linguistics without having been "taught" anything. Most of the stuff I find most interesting or useful I taught myself. Computer programming, linguistics, German, and soon, hopefully, Old English.

The only problem with this method of learning is that people in the real world demand some sort of proof that you know what you say you know, which brings me back to that silly piece of paper. It's a horrible quantifier of what one knows. I've seen people get Physics degrees when they couldn't physics their way out of a box on the physicingest day of their life! But, I digress...

I just hope the stock market keeps going up so I don't have to work for anybody or go to school for anybody anymore.